Russia’s Future

Professor Angela Stent’s lecture covered a myriad of facets of Russia-U.S. relations. What struck me most was her focus on the need for U.S. officials to better empathize with Russia, to better understand their unique position.

Many Russians see U.S. as Russia’s main adversary, a view that is only encouraged by state-run media. It is hardly surprising this would be the dominant view, given the humiliation Russia has experienced. Moving from a superpower to a severely weakened state with a dirty past and a dim future, it is natural that the people of Russia would support a leader who seemed capable of earning the respect Russia has sorely missed.  We see Russia as an extremely powerful, therefore dangerous, country. However, Russians feel acutely vulnerable. This sense of vulnerability can lead to bitterness, as they see the U.S. constantly undermining them, whether it is tightening the “noose” of NATO or criticizing Russia’s human rights abuses, while being soft on China.

She also mentioned the important divide between the middle class in Moscow and the working class in the provinces. When the protests erupted last year, it was commonly held view in the U.S. that these protests signaled that most Russians were against Putin. However, Moscow is not Russia, however it might seem to other nations. Putin is well supported outside of Moscow, both in the provinces and his home city of St. Petersburg. Although he clearly abuses his grip on power, it is not a sure thing that even if elections were completely honest, he would lose. That fact is not just indicative of Putin’s popularity but also of the lack of any viable opponents, a reality made sure by Kremlin policies.

After the lecture, I was left with several questions regarding the future of Russia, the most important question regarding the possible effects of oil prices. Putin’s popularity is heavily due to the economic success enjoyed under his watch. However, this economic success is mostly due to a reliance on the exportation of expensive oil. However, when oil prices fall (and it is a question of when, not if) I wonder what the effect will be on Russian politics. People are less likely to permit civil right abuses if the economy tanks, but Putin will likely turn to even more authoritarian techniques, to stay in power.