In MENA region, directly eight nations (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are ruled by monarchies. In contrast, monarchs in neighboring Middle Eastern countries like Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Iran have lost their power. The defining characteristics of these remaining monarchs, which include maliks, amirs, and sultans, may suggest a connection with a “sultanistic” regime.
However, labelling most contemporary Arab monarchies as such would create more confusion than clarity.
A sultanistic regime highlights unchecked personal rule, while corruption pervades society, blurring the lines between the state and the regime. In contrast, authoritarian regimes have limited political pluralism, often driven by a specific mentality rather than an elaborate ideology. To differentiate authoritarianism from sultanism, we can consider four key aspects.
Authoritarian regimes tolerate some level of pluralism among social groups, whereas sultanistic regimes atomize these groups. Authoritarian regimes may have a guiding mentality, while sultanistic regimes focus on a cult of personality. Authoritarian regimes aim for political apathy, while sultanistic regimes mobilize society for the ruler’s glorification. Lastly, authoritarian regimes have predictable boundaries on governmental power, whereas sultanistic regimes grant near-complete discretion to the leader.
The general population remains politically inactive, and the monarchy is constitutionally organised and legitimised, with unchecked power formally granted.
Which are the challenges facing Middle Eastern monarchies?
Well, one of the key challenges is the need to balance tradition with modernity. Monarchies in the region often rely on their historical legitimacy, emphasizing their role as guardians of culture and tradition. At the same time, they must navigate the demands of a rapidly changing world. The tension between maintaining traditional values and adapting to modernity can create friction within these societies.
Economic stability is another challenge. Many Middle Eastern monarchies have relied on oil wealth to finance their governments and provide services to their citizens. The fluctuation in oil prices and the push for diversification away from oil-dependent economies are pressing concerns. The rentier-state argument explains the lack of democracy in oil-producing states, as the state’s primary goal is resource distribution, not taxation. This, in turn, leads to limited representation because again (as you can read on one of my previous blog post on Rentierism), taxation is relevant in society in order to create a “social contract” with the population, so that people know what is going on with their money. These monarchies must develop sustainable economic models for a long-term stability, even though it does not guarantee the resilience of such monarchies.
Social dynamics and demographics are also shifting. A young and increasingly educated population seeks greater political participation and economic opportunities. Monarchs must find ways to address the aspirations of their youth while preserving their own rule.
External pressures, including interference from other nations, can also destabilise Middle Eastern monarchies.
One of the most direct and overt ways in which external pressures can destabilise Middle Eastern monarchies is through military interventions. Powerful external actors, such as the United States, Russia, or regional powers, may opt for direct military action in the region, leading to conflict, regime change, or territorial disputes. These interventions can disrupt the established order and pose a significant threat to the monarchies in the area.
Moreover, the phenomenon of proxy wars is prevalent in the Middle East. External powers frequently support different factions and groups within countries, effectively turning them into battlegrounds for their own interests and this proxy wars can further prolong conflicts, weaken the authority of monarchies, and contribute to instability.
Security alliances with external powers are common for Middle Eastern monarchies but while these alliances can provide a sense of security, they also expose vulnerabilities. If the interests change or if they are involved in regional conflicts, these alliances can turn into sources of instability.
In conclusion, Middle Eastern monarchies have unique governance structures deeply rooted in tradition and culture. They face several challenges, and how effectively they address these challenges will play a crucial role in determining their long-term stability and relevance in the rapidly changing Middle East.
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