Russell E. Lucas describes the monarch as a personalistic ruler that does not rule alone, but rather stands at the center of a regime coalition that can include a broad social base. He explains that political pluralism is allowed not only within the regime coalition but also in the legal opposition. Monarchies are generally constitutionally organized, yet the constitutional usually grants the monarchy unchecked power. Lucas further categorizes authoritarian monarchies as either dynastic or linchpin (Lucas, 108). While many monarchs fell to populist nationalist movements, eight rulers remain in power, ranging from Northwestern African to the countries of the GCC. Since the 2011 Arab Uprisings (and in many cases, before), the surviving monarchies have faced challenges in the continuation of monarchial rule; however, they have been able to hold off opposition groups thanks to powerful assets.
The 2011 Arab Uprisings featured new ways to mobilize and challenge the monarchy. In Morocco, the Feb20 movement, which gained considerable ground across the country and resulted in mass demonstrations and calls to action, started on social media. Everyday people created a discussion page that highlighted holes in the regime, leading to demands for constitutional change, a new cabinet, the dissolution of parliament, installing an independent judiciary, setting corruption trials, making Berber an official language, and freeing all political prisoners (Khatib and Lust, 205, 208-210). The demonstration effect resulted in other monarchial subjects to see the work being done in Morocco and feel empowered to call out their regimes at home. This phenomenon occurred in Bahrain, where youth activists formed the Feb 14 Coalition. Campaigning for human rights and for increased accountability of the regime, Bahraini activists used online forums to quickly organize demonstrations. Both the Feb20 and Feb14 movements gained considerable traction within their respective countries; however, the groups inability to formally organize, come to a consensus, and demand revolutionary ideas rather than simple reforms has resulted in the Monarchy’s ability to remain in power (Lucas, 111. Khatib and Lust, 187-188, 219). Thus, in order for opposition groups to make significant changes, it is important that they put aside their differences to achieve the ultimate goal of regime change. Unfortunately, even in movements that resulted in constitutional reform, the regime often diverted blame from the monarchy to the government while also maintaining full control of the government (285).
A second challenge to monarchial rule in MENA is the diverse group of protestors across the region, namely young people. In Morocco, Bahrain, and Kuwait, young people have dominated protests demanding constitutional and parliamentary reform. In Jordan, women have even begun to join protests (Khatib and Lust, 246). Ex-military and tribal groups have even emerged (Khatib and Lust, 248-250). The coming together of several different groups of people increases the risk of insurrection within the country. However, the divide-and-rule strategy allows rulers to create splits within the opposition to keep them from coming together. In Jordan, the debate over identity is a convenient way for the regime to keep Jordanians divided (252). In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the regime divides the opposition over the liberation of females (278, 317). The divide-and-rule strategy allows monarchies to maintain legitimacy as they act as a check on the power of pluralistic groups (287, 302).
A final challenge that monarchies face is a growing population and the depletion of resources. Lucas explains that the monarchs in Egypt and Iraq could not accommodate the rise of the new middle class, whereas the eight surviving monarchies, like Saudi Arabia and Morocco, have significantly smaller populations. Smaller populations have made it easier for the surviving monarchies to continue rule; however, as populations rise, people become educated, and the countries are depleted of their natural resources, the surviving monarchies will have to find alternate ways of pacifying their subjects.
While it is clear that protestors must work to come together in order to see real change, it is clear that “the wall of fear has fallen […] and the king is no longer immune to criticism” (246). If monarchies wish to remain in power, they must evolve with the growing population and rising demands of the people.
Sources:
Linda Katib and Ellen Lust. Taking to the Streets The Transformation of Arab Activism. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014.
Russell E. Lucas. “Monarchial Authoritarianism: Survival and Political Liberation In A Middle Eastern Regime Type.” Int. J. Middle East Stud, 36 (2004), 103-119.
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