There are countless reasons why the monarchies of the Middle East are facing sleepless nights thinking about their power being taken from them. Most the these monarchies rely on tactics we have covered in class such as the idea of being a forceful leader and using intimidation to stay in power, or using means of coercion to keep their power. While many monarchies in the region use their vast amounts of wealth to keep their politically active citizens at bay some rely on methods that are repressive in attempts to quiet the population not coerce. The most recent example of this is Jordan. On July 26th a law was proposed that would increase punishment and target those who publish or speak their minds about topics that the Jordanian monarchy finds unpleasant or aggressive towards their rule. Essentially it is completely undermining the free speech that the state has had an ability to enjoy, while not completely free from repression online before this. According to many journalists and citizens alike, the bill is so vague that those who talk in anyway may break the law without even knowing they are doing so.
The law took effect in September after being passed by King Abdullah II in August. Human Rights Watch called the law “Draconian” and that it was vague and created a space where the Jordanian government can prosecute any individual for saying almost anything that the monarchy deems unsavory. This is the kind of measure that starts to create unrest in a state which does not give its citizens real power to change things that it feel infringes on its freedoms and rights without the ability to make that choice themselves. No doubt that with the protests that occurred after this law took effect the King most likely was a little bit more worried about his popularity in the country. He also must believe however that this will help him maintain rule over the state and that the negative press and coverage is outweighed by the ability to prosecute and detain those who do not share the same love for the monarchies policies. One of the biggest factors in uprisings and civil unrest is the removal of freedoms that are enjoyed at such a basic level for so many, and the fact that the law has made it so that people do not know what they can even be prosecuted for makes it another major issue and something that should definitely keep King Abdullah up at night.
In the Middle East’s monarchies there are multiple reasons that they are being challenged in their rule and the legitimacy behind it. The common idea of coercion versus legitimacy comes up in many cases, what gives these leaders the ability to rule is such an important thing when they start to lack the ability to coerce the people. The greatest challenge to these monarchs is the ability to continue to stay relevant and continue to be able to provide the case that they are the ones who deserve to lead. In the case of the oil rich countries they need to be able to broaden the way that they make money and need to be able to show that they can adapt their country for long term success after their oil money runs out which is not going to happen overnight but most likely could happen sooner than the think.
As we talked about in class though the main and specific issues that face the monarchs in this region are numerous, however some include overall youth employment, visible corruption, new media sources, and overall restlessness from the population. These plague the monarchs in the region as well as the authoritarian states as well, in the monarchies the sole blame eventually may lead to the restlessness of the monarchs themselves. However, the monarchs have shown they are capable of giving reasons that the populations are willing to take as “payment” from the monarchs to stay docile. Many of the GCC monarchs for example have made it so that many of their citizens are wealthy enough that the idea of a democratization is not as luxurious. Many of the citizens in these countries are living much better lives than their ancestors, or many other states in the region. That would lead the citizens of these states to think that the monarchy is okay as long as they are living the same lifestyle they are currently looking at. They see the previous attempts in the region at democratization as causing mass unrest that creates worse conditions in the short run.
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