Reflection on Simulation and applying it (and the Ukraine war in general) to IR Theory
The Friday simulation proved to be one of the most enjoyable experiences I have had in this class, and one of the most thought-provoking ones as well. I think that the outcome in terms of what students believed America’s course of action should was unsurprising. It is the safest option for the West that continues to provide Ukraine support, but also limits potential escalation with Russia. Based off of several conversations I’ve had with Alex in the past, his positions are not particularly surprising as well. And while I may disagree with his perspective there, I think he certainly has some interesting points to be considered.
My choice of the 3rd and most extreme option is perhaps somewhat controversial sounding, but it isn’t as bad as it sounds on paper. To get to the point where Ukraine would be thinking of retaking Crimea, major changes on the battlefield would need to take place. In practice, the second option will be needed for the 3rd, meaning that my shift in option would only become relevant after major battlefield gains by the Ukrainians. Perhaps they wouldn’t have fully retaken everything from before 2022 by the time it would become a point of discussion, but there would be a fundamentally different strategic calculus by that time. And the specific plan that I envisioned would use the foreign assets sized by the US and its allies as a bargaining chip (which amounts to tens of billions of dollars). This might convince them that the price of peace will be worth it, especially these are the assets of various oligarchs that hold at least some political sway (though those who advocate for this may find themselves mysteriously falling out of tall buildings).
How does the Ukraine conflict relate to IR theory, and what would a realist and liberal viewpoint of the conflict see? The realist perspective is perhaps the easiest to grasp; we read a piece on this in preparation for the simulation. However, there is another point that a realist would likely bring up, which would be preserving the balance of power. A realist may advocate for Ukraine falling into Russia’s sphere of influence or staying neutral to restore the balance of power and prevent Russia from launching attacks further into the western sphere of influence. A liberal may see the fact that the Ukraine war started as a failure of institutions such as the UN, NATO, EU, and CTSO. To preserve the legitimacy of these first three institutions along with international laws and norms, it would probably seek to at least return Ukraine to the pre-invasion borders, if not pre 2014 ones. A constructivist theorist would probably look at the conflict and focus on the ideological conditions, such as Ukraine’s ideological shift towards the west and Russia attempting to spread their ideology and reclaim former Soviet territory. While perhaps no view is comprehensive, all raise interesting points about the origins and potential solutions to the war.
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