The region of MENA once had a large number of monarchies that existed throughout the area, some for centuries. However, during the second half of the 20th century, various monarchies in countries such as Libya, Iraq, Iran, and others saw themselves be forced from power. By the end of the century, with the fall of Communism and the huge spread of democracy, many believed that the monarchies that were still intact in the Middle East were surviving on borrowed time and would soon be cast into history. When the Arab Spring spread throughout the region in 2011, it appeared to many that time was up for all these rulers. That turned out not to be the case. In the year 2023, the nations of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Morocco, and the UAE all have monarchies that still control the levers on power. Questions still remain. What are the challenges that face monarchical rule? And what assets do this monarchies have to enable them to stay in power?
The first challenge to be discussed started off more like an asset. Many monarchies in MENA had strong relationships with foreign powers. This included the Shah of Iran’s relationship with the United States and much of the West. With this relationship came huge amounts of aid and military support, which the Shah of Iran took great advantage of to build up his military and improve his security forces to quell any opposition. However, due to the West’s history of intervention in Iranian politics, in particular the 1953 coup and the backing of the Shah, many in Iran began to oppose the Shahs rule, seeing him as a puppet of the West. This opposition grew and grew throughout the 1970s and along with economic troubles and worsening health, the Shah became increasingly unable to govern and was finally forced to leave in early 1979. With his departure, over 2500 years of monarchial rule in Iran ended. Other monarchies in MENA, in particular the nations of Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, have strong ties to the United States. In 1990, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, US and other coalition forces were sent to Saudi Arabia to force the Iraqis out. This resulted in a strong victory and strengthened ties between Saudi Arabia and the US. However, with Western forces in what Muslim’s consider the holy land, many were outraged, in particular a number of radicals such as Osama bin Laden, who from then on swore to destroy the United States and the West. This ultimately resulted in a number of terrorist attacks against US citizens and interests, with the 9/11 attacks bringing the United States to start the War on Terror. This along with the perception among many conservative Muslims that involvement with the West has brought cultural changes that are viewed as negative has become of concern. It is viewed by many within the various ruling families in MENA that while maintaining strong relations with the United States and the West does have its risks, the risks do not outweigh the gains, which comes in the form of strong security guarantees from the most powerful military organization that currently exists.
The second challenge would be the effects of modernization. Many of the states in MENA sought to modernize their countries with improved infrastructure, better education, and larger social programs. However, with countries modernizing and improving education generally means that more and more people want a strong voice in government, leading to demands to democratize or some version of it. This occurred in various nations including Egypt and Iran. However, in today’s monarchical systems, the rulers have figured out ways to please the demands for representation and still cling on to power. They allow groups to voice their concerns and say they will attempt to find solutions. They can also create a civil society, where they can use simple “divide and conquer” tactics to divide their opponents, such as in a parliamentary setting. This means that the opposition groups, though not able to force out the monarchy, are able to exert more influence and therefore have a sense of victory in improving their own power. An asset that many of the monarchies in MENA have are vast oil reserves, which translates to huge financial support in which the rulers can use to either improve their economics, strengthen their militaries and security forces, or spread out to their supporters and allies as an incentive to help them keep power. With all this, these monarchies can expect to remain at the reigns of power for some time to come.
Sources used:
David B Roberts Associate Professor. “Middle Eastern Monarchies: How Do Arab Ruling Families Hold on to Power?” The Conversation, June 8, 2023.
Herre, Bastian, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Max Roser. “Democracy.” Our World in Data, September 25, 2023
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