Greetings readers! For my final blog post, I wanted to take the time to share some final thoughts about the research that I was conducting for this course in Germany. For those of you who are reading my blogs for the first time, my research is focused on the question asking what the German public opinion is regarding natural gas as an energy source and does the German public support it as a viable means to the energy transition?
The existing literature that attempts to answer this question covers the idea that the war in Ukraine has significantly altered the supplies of gas that Germany has been relying on for their energy security. With that being said, There exists a high amount of evidence that suggests that German opinion on gas has shifted significantly away from its dependence on other countries for economic purposes but now to stress energy independence within the country out of fear of manipulation from other countries (like Russia) (Belkin 2022). With the war in Ukraine in mind and Germany’s former dependence on Russian gas for its energy security in mind, there exists a discussion about tensions between the Western block and Russia and how these are indirectly affecting Germany’s energy preferences. Since Germany is a close ally of the United States, much of the lost energy from Russia has been shored up by the United States’ rich natural gas and fracking abilities. This relationship only strengthens Germany’s ties to the West and likely has caused public opinion on Russia within Germany to decrease as tensions increase (Grigas 2017).
A pro-Ukraine rally in Germany which resulted in the German government increasing its support to Ukraine in 2022. (Source).
As existing literature suggests that tensions between Germany and Russia have heightened in recent years and the dependence of Germany on Russian gas has significantly been reduced from the beginning of the war, my research is intended to take these points made in the existing literature and to present some early findings of the actual opinions of the German public. From what my small sample size has determined, the approval rating of Germans on Russian gas before the war was around 4 out of 10. Today, the number has plummeted to a 1.5 out of 10. When asked about the alternative options to natural gas as an energy source, most Germans referred to renewables while shunning other options such as nuclear or coal.
While my findings are definitely aligning with the current research by suggesting that the Germans are beginning to sour on natural gas as a result of the war, the strong focus on sustainable alternatives such as wind and solar suggests that the shift in public opinion will likely indirectly affect the sustainability of the energy grid within the near future. As German opinion continues to become more favorable to renewables, it will only increase the rate in which Germany shifts away from energy sources like coal and natural gas.
I think that the research that I am conducting can very much be related to the MENA region. Particularly, as renewables become more common and oil is increasingly phased out as an energy source in Germany but also worldwide, I imagine that countries who focus their economic interests heavily on fossil fuels will begin to suffer as a result of a decrease in demand. I think that through learning about this and being aware of it, this viewpoint can be applied to a globalized context and to help further integrate the economies and relationships between the MENA region and the rest of the western world.
Huda Al Bunnia April 13, 2023
Hey Jacob, thank you for sharing your research and reflections on the German public’s opinion regarding natural gas as an energy source. As I understand it, your research suggests that the war in Ukraine has led to a shift in German public opinion away from natural gas dependence on other countries, particularly Russia, towards a focus on energy independence and sustainability. This shift is reflected in a decrease in the approval rating for Russian gas and a preference for renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
The blog highlights the complex interplay between geopolitics, energy security, and sustainability. It is interesting to see how a political conflict can influence public opinion and energy choices. It is also encouraging to see the growing interest in sustainable energy sources like renewables. Building on your discussion of the MENA region, it is worth noting that many countries in that region are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports. As demand for these fuels decreases, there is a need for these countries to diversify their economies and invest in alternative energy sources. This presents both challenges and opportunities for the region. How do you see the shift towards renewable energy impacting Germany’s relationship with other countries, particularly those that are heavily invested in fossil fuels? Looking forward to reading more of your blogs!
Hamda Al Shamsi April 16, 2023
Thank you, Jacob, for sharing some information about your research on the German public opinion of natural gas as an energy source and the public support of it as an energy transition. I found it helpful that you explained your research project by considering those reading your blogs for the first time, as I could understand your research project much better.
From what I have read in your blog post, you are focusing on how the war in Ukraine has changed the supplies of gas that Germany has been dependent on for their energy security. Likewise, emphasizing how German’s way of thinking about gas has changed; where they were reliant on other countries for their economic purposes but now focusing on energy independence within the country.
In the blog post, you mentioned how the MENA region adopted renewable energy as they strive to become more sustainable in the future. The UAE has a UAE 2050 energy goal that aims to achieve 44 percent of clean energy by using renewable and clean energy sources, which include solar power. Therefore, do you think abandoning fossil fuels and focusing on a more sustainable energy source is possible?
Thank you again, Jacob; it has been a pleasure reading your blog post!
Sheikha Alhashmi April 16, 2023
Thank you Jacob for sharing your final thoughts on your research! I think your findings present a logical outline; the shift in public opinion definitely correlates with Germany’s altered dependence on natural gas as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In fact, your survey reflection raises an important point. The fact that, based on your sample, the majority of Germans are more favorable to renewable energy means that they are well aware of how geopolitics affect energy preferences. Since Russia is one of the biggest oil producers in the world, the Russian-Ukrainian has caused a global disruption in oil and gas supply, and Germany’s reliance on importing natural gas from Russia has decreased accordingly.
However, while Germany’s ties to the West are strengthened as the US has shored up Germany’s lost energy, I wonder if this will affect the extent to which Germany is considering its energy preference choices. Since Germany has an ally to which it can resort, it might be discouraging to invest in alternative energy sources, especially given the high costs that come with such a shift. It might be interesting to ask Germans what they think about this, and whether they’d still prefer to change their energy preferences in this context.
Finally, I’d like to know how the findings of your research might be applied to the MENA region. Do you believe that oil-based countries like Saudi Arabia or Kuwait would ever be willing to adjust their economies given that the US will always need oil from them?
AbdulRahman Eslam Shoaib April 16, 2023
Thank you Jacob for your insightful take on what Germany is using as their energy source. I honestly never looked at it that way and didn’t know that Germany depended on Russia for their gas supply, that really surprised me. After reading your post it actually makes a lot of sense that perhaps the reason they’re heavily incentivized to pursue alternative sources that are renewable and cleaner because they are certain they will not be able to rely on Russia for their source of energy forever.
Come to think of it I did read somewhere on the BBC that Russia did halt Germany’s gas supply late last year around August and Germany stopped importing oil from them. I guess it worked out in the end as the country is now heavily aiding in reducing their carbon footprint involuntarily with their pursuit of other sources of energy.
I can tell your visit to Germany was extremely beneficial and helped build your understanding towards this matter as even I feel like I learned a lot from reading all your posts. Thank you again for sharing!
Fariyal April 17, 2023
Hello Jacob, I really liked your research topic and the way you implemented it. It is commendable of you to tie the economical/ political aspects of the world with the current situation of the environment. Certainly, Germany started facing issues for its natural gas dependence after the war situation in Russia; however, it appears to me that Germany has elegantly taken this situation to distance itself from natural gas and rely on renewables as a source of energy. Moreover, the results of your survey point that the German approval of Russian gas was already low to begin with, and so the shift in the energy source will not be challenging. Additionally, your thoughts on the MENA region and its economic dependence on fossil fuel business has pushed me into thinking the consequences for countries that rely only on fossil fuel for business. It is a tough choice for such countries to choose between economic prosperity and the environment. It is hard to digest that the improvement of the environment comes after the economic downturn of such countries – due to no business for fossil fuel by countries. Nevertheless, with 79% of total U.S. primary energy production in 2021 coming from fossil fuels, do you think that countries with fossil fuels will ever run out of business?