This week I attended the panel discussion hosted by the Dickinson College Clarke Forum “Ukraine-Russia War: Reflections After One Year.” Professor Bova, a panelist on this discussion and my professor for the “Ukraine War” course, has prompted my class to think about how things would be different had Ukraine not given up their nuclear weapons in 1994 and signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The answer is simple; everything. 

Putin has always believed that Ukraine is inherently Russian. He used this logic to justify his Crimea invasion in 2014. Had Ukraine kept their nuclear weapons, however, Professor Bova and I believe that Russia would not have invaded Crimea. Nuclear weapons often offer states security that they won’t be invaded. Ukraine was defenseless without nuclear weapons and did not pose a threat to Russia. Had the quick and easy invasion of Crimea not occurred it is extremely likely that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2022. 

If Ukraine had kept their nuclear weapons it is also likely that NATO expansion would not be a prominent concern. One of the main reasons that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 was to stop NATO expansion. By keeping their nuclear weapons, however, Ukraine would not necessarily need NATO protection. Ukraine would be able to protect itself from Russian threats. Russia would have been deterred from invading Crimea or Ukraine if Ukraine had their own nuclear weapons. 

Although nuclear weapons have only ever been used twice in combat, their mere existence dramatically shapes wars. Had Ukraine kept their nuclear weapons it seems unimaginable that this war would be happening. 

The moderator and panelists at the Dickinson College Clarke Forum “Ukraine-Russia War: Reflections After One Year.