ibex © Martin Teschner (CC BY-ND 2.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/

© Martin Teschner (CC BY-ND 2.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/

As the world wakes up to the reality of climate change, scientists are looking ahead in order to quantify the potential effects of our changing environment on an already-endangered species.  Researchers from Central State University (Wilberforce, OH) and NewMexico State University (Las Cruces, NM) worked in collaboration with the IUCN Species Survival Commission in producing a study which works to  uncover the potential effects of changing climatic conditions on the distribution of the Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) in eastern Tajikistan.

The Asiatic ibex is a wild goat species which currently has a relatively wide distribution throughout Central and Northern Asia.  A noteworthy feature displayed by males of the species are the long, curved horns which range between 91-148 cm in length (Salas et al, p 28).  Snow leopards, brown bear, red fox, and wolves are all wild predators of the ibex, who also face human-influenced pressures such as over-grazing and illegal hunting.  Ibices remain poorly studied and elusive by nature; with populations occurring at higher elevations than any other ungulate or hoofed mammal, the total population of the ibex is not known.

The migration of mountain species as a result of climate change has been documented to result in significant disruptions in patterns of species distribution and habitat use.  Informed by these previous results, ecological niche modeling was utilized in this groundbreaking study to produce climate outcome projections through 2070. These projections sought to identify areas of both potential habitat gain and habitat loss through comparison of the most important factors in determining a habitat’s suitability for ibex populations. These critical factors were defined as elevation, terrain roughness, seasonal temperature, and precipitation during the warmest quarter of the year.

Ultimately, elevation was identified as the most influential factor over ibex distribution. Modeling the ibex population showed potential habitat losses of “15.1% by 2050 and to 17.7% by 2070,” (Salas et al., p 32). Despite this potential for losses in suitable habitat, the model also projected potential gains in habitat size in other locations across the study area, as much as “37.4% by 2050 and to 30.2% in 2070) (Salas et al., p 32).  On average, the Siberian ibex stands to lose 18% of their current habitat distribution by 2070, but gain 30%.

The implications of this study reach far beyond the boundaries of the ibex’s habitat.  The modeling techniques utilized by researchers in this context could potentially be applied to other at-risk ecosystems or species in order to begin to quantify the effects of climate change.

References:

Reading, R. & Shank, C. 2008. Capra sibirica . The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008:  e.T42398A10695735.    https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2008.RLTS.T42398A10695735.en.

Salas, E. A. L., Valdez, R., Michel, S., Boykin, K. G.  2020.  Response of Asiatic       ibex (Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios.  Journal of                       resources and ecology 11(1): 27- 37.