High expectations? Maybe not.

By: Emily Bowie ’14

What should we expect in Durban? Well, besides the possibility of spotting Leonardo DiCaprio and Angelina Jolie it seems we shouldn’t expect much.

Deputy Director at IISD Reporting services, Chris Spence, claims that based on the Bonn, Germany pre-nogotiation in June, Durban will be judged largely on how it addresses:

(1) “agreement on a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol”;

(2) “progress on a broader, comprehensive agreement that includes all major emitters”;

and (3) “progress in operationalizing new institutions such as the Technology Mechanism and Green Climate Fund.”

Spence claims there has been a growing sense that an agreement on the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol will not be formed. However, in the last pre-negotiations in Panama, Australia and Norway drafted a plan for the second period that would include all except the least developed countries. The problem will be getting all countries on board. India has voiced concern with capping developing countries’ development and with the US refusing to ratify the first period we are now seeing Japan, Canada and the Russian Federation, and possibly the EU, Norway, Switzerland and a few others voicing an unwillingness to sign on to a second period.

The second goal, for a broader, more comprehensive agreement, is going to be difficult to achieve. Many developed countries are pushing for a more encompassing agreement while developing countries are pushing for the North to take the lead under Kyoto. This stubborn divide in interests will be hard to breach.

The last expectation, for progress in operationalizing new institutions, gives some signs of hope. The Cancun Agreements established many new instututions and processes that now need to have their rules finalized. Despite the problems that will be faced due differences between each country’s motives, Spence claims that in this sector we may actually see some successes.

What all pre-negotiations and analyses seem to point towards in Durban is a severe lack of agreement in major decisions making such as the second Kyoto commitment period and other comprehensive agreements. However, we will most likely see success in smaller areas, such as in operationalizing new institutions implemented under the Cancun Agreements. The question remains, is this enough?

Works that I consulted:

Spence, 2011. “What can a deal in Durban deliver?” Policy Update #9, IISD Reporting Services. http://climate-l.iisd.org/policy-updates/what-can-a-deal-in-durban-deliver/

Patel, November 2011. “Consensus Remains Elusive As Cop-17 Draws Closer.” http://allafrica.com/stories/201111160522.html.

Butkiewicz, 2011. “Panama Climate Talks Signal What’s Ahead in Durban.” http://www.rff.org/wv/archive/2011/10/13/panama-climate-talks-signal-whats-ahead-in-durban.aspx