One Week Till Durban!

By: Christine Burns ’14
One week till the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties commences in Durban, South Africa, and we’re going to be there!  In all of our studies this semester we have discussed the success and failures of the past conferences leading up to Durban.  So what can we expect from COP 17?

Well, the Kyoto Protocol only has one year left, and still progress has been slow on a future emissions agreement.  According to David Fogarty’s article, “What can U.N. climate talks in Durban deliver?” there are four possible options.

The first possible outcome would be an extension of Kyoto into a second commitment period with new targets.  Fogarty says that the chances of this occurring are very unlikely or to next to impossible.  He claims that the Protocol is too out of date, and without including high emitting developing countries like China, there is no point.
The second possible outcome would be no agreement on a second period.  Fogarty says that the chances for this are very likely.  He also states that even without an official extension Kyoto can still survive.  “It is a broad-based pact that covers provisions for regular reporting of emissions, market mechanisms that allow emissions trading and compliance.  Many of the provisions can still function without new targets.”  He makes a valid point that many countries are already forming their own emissions reductions, but can they actually do enough to slow climate change? Probably not, which is why we really need something more.

The third outcome would be the “fudge option- a political agreement on Kyoto.”  This he claims is likely, because of a strong commitment form developing countries to keep Kyoto alive.  This political agreement would be a non-binding agreement between the rich nations to extend the existing Kyoto targets for a couple of years.  The important reporting and emissions trading aspects of Kyoto could be maintained, even though the commitment period is technically over.

The fourth and final possible outcome would be no agreement on anything.  Fogarty claims this is possible but very unlikely, because the South African government would not want the fall of UNFCCC on their hands.  He says that at the least, a transparency framework is pretty much agreed upon already, and the design of the Green Climate Fund could be another area for agreement.

Overall, I have to agree with Fogarty; I think that countries are too divided to agree upon on a second Kyoto commitment or even a totally new protocol.  I think that some wishy-washy agreement to buy more non-existent time is the most likely outcome.  I hope Fogarty and I are wrong, and that something substantial can come from Durban, but a look at past conferences and position statements from parties to the COP make me less than optimistic.

Works Cited:
Fogarty, David. “What Can U.N. Climate Talks in Durban Deliver?| Reuters.” Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com. 16 Nov. 2011. Web. 20 Nov. 2011..