Future of violent conflict

Security Studies since the early 90’s have been looking at the connection between the environment and violent conflicts.  Looking back we can see a history of violent conflicts in certain countries, many of which of LDC (Least Developed countries).  The security community has come to agreement that environment factors are rarely causes of conflict but rather catalysts and drivers. But what about the future? There is now a new field of study beginning, climate change and violent conflict.  A new review of 55 research papers shows that there is an increase in violent conflict related to climate change.  The National Bureau of Economic Research http://envirocivil.com/climate/climate-change-supplementing-violence-women/ conducted this review and has a working paper that is also saying that these two factors are linked.  Although most people can agree that with a changing climate may cause stress on certain systems that we need to survive, and will there fore cause some sort of violent reaction.  However what is really interesting is that environment issues as drivers and catalysts change in these predictions of climate change caused violent conflict.  This new form of conflict would be the cause, driver, and catalyst of violence. In past conflicts, environmental stresses help to exacerbate conflict, but do not usually act as the core reason.  However, if climate threats increase enough they will become the sole cause of conflict.  If there is simply not enough water for everyone, there will be conflict.  Furthermore this shifts the priorities of the Security community, placing climate change threats as the top.  If there is not enough water for people to survive it doesn’t really matter what the economic or political climate is.

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